top line
The world’s richest man, Elon Musk, was overjoyed when the odds on one popular presidential election betting platform swung heavily in former President Donald Trump’s favor on Monday, but other sites offering bets have seen strange changes. The move was much less dramatic.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk (right) joins Donald Trump at a campaign rally on Saturday.
important facts
On Monday, Mr. Trump’s lead over Vice President Kamala Harris rapidly expanded on a blockchain-based polymarket that allows users to place unconventional bets on events such as presidential elections.
As of just after 6:00 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time, Polymarket had priced the probability of Trump’s victory at 53.3% and the probability of Harris’ victory at 46.1%, and as of 9:30 a.m., support for Trump ranged from 50.9% to 48.2%. %, and Mr. Trump’s polymarket odds rose to the highest value. It was the highest level since early August, shortly after Harris took over the Democratic nomination from President Joe Biden.
According to Election Betting Odds, which aggregates the probability of victory suggested by presidential election betting platforms including Polymarket, the transition to Polymarket has propelled Mr. Trump as the favorite candidate over Ms. Harris in market betting for the first time since September 10. did.
But Polymarket’s competitors made much smaller moves on Monday, with PredictIt favoring Harris over Trump by a roughly flat 51.4% to 48.6% margin over the past 24 hours, with Calci’s odds at 51%. It remained flat in favor of Harris at 49%.
what we don’t know
What is the cause of the fluctuation in support for Trump in the political market? Some social media users said the move came after an anonymous user named “Fredi9999” increased his bet on Trump’s victory to more than $4 million. Polymarket operates as an “offshore” book and doesn’t face similar federal regulations, such as PredictIt (which has an $850 limit) and Kalshi (previously $25,000), but Kalshi gave Trump a $60,000 cap on Monday. does not restrict individual bettors (such as those who shared bets of $1,000 or more). Therefore, changes in Trump’s odds in polymarkets may be the result of buying activity by one or a small number of high-stakes bettors, rather than any significant change in the electoral landscape.
tangent
Musk, who endorsed Trump in July and attended a rally with the Republican candidate on Saturday, shared several posts on social media platform X touting his transition to polymarkets. Musk shared a post linking the jump to his attendance at Trump’s Pennsylvania rally, writing that the betting odds were “more accurate than polls because there’s real money at stake,” and Harris. reposted a screenshot emphasizing that election odds were “collapsing.”
amazing facts
In a post on his Silver Bulletin blog Monday night, statistician Nate Silver called the change in Trump’s support for polymarkets “more of a swing than warranted,” adding that his He pointed out that the election model gives Harris a 54.7% chance of winning. Silver, who also serves as an advisor to Polymarket, added that the reasons for this tilt are “not that many,” but trigger-happy traders, Musk’s hype, and Polymarket’s trader base, which is made up of more Trump supporters. Several theories were proposed, including the possibility that
Contra
National polls show Harris with a slight lead over Trump, and FiveThirtyEight predicts a 55% chance that Harris will secure enough electoral votes to win.
important quotes
“Polymarket is effectively taking something like an internet shouting match and turning it into a market where the right person wins,” Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan told Forbes in July.
Read more
Correction (10/7): This story has been updated to reflect Kalsi’s wagering restrictions.
#Trumps #election #odds #soar #polymarket #Musk #promotes #gambling #site